BUDGET 2009
Tuesday the 11th of November 2008
1. The Minister for Finance began his Budget well. "The aim is to restore order and stability in the public finances, to increase productivity and competitiveness and to protect those who are most vulnerable in our country". He began to falter when he twice claimed that no one had anticipated the global and domestic downturns. In the US, Warren Buffet and Paul Krugman (the new Nobel Laureate) had warned those who would listen, while domestically, a number of academic economists and the Bulletin have repeatedly issued health warnings on the economy. He faltered further when he revealed his policy choices. The 3 legged stool of Government fiscal policy at present rests on expenditure cuts, taxation increases and borrowing. The Minister is going to sharply increase borrowing (by €12bn. in 2009), raise €2bn. in extra taxes, and is providing for a 1% increase in the volume of current public spending in 2009 (with cuts promised for later years). In the past, successive Irish Governments reacted to major external shocks, such as the two oil crises, by initially increasing taxes and borrowing, and only belatedly by cutting real expenditure. The Minister has repeated this mistaken strategy. His is an optimistic Budget for a deeply pessimistic age. It is likely to progressively unravel as 2009 rolls out.
2. Capital spending has done badly. Gross Capital spending in 2009 will fall by 11%, or by more than €1bn, from €9.3bn. in 2008 to €8.2bn. in 2009. Projects which will continue include Luas works, the Cork to Midleton commuter line, the Major Inter-Urban road programme, the Convention Centre in Dublin and an additional €90m., or 19% in water services. The investment programmes of major semi-states, such as the Dublin Airport Authority, BGE, ESB and Eirgrid, will continue. Investment in capital projects in Education will increase by €79m., or by almost 10% in 2009, but most of the increase will be in non-building investment. Transport has suffered heavily from investment cuts. The NRA will have €1.4bn. in 2009, 11% less than in 2008. And while "planning and enabling works on Metro North" will continue, the project has de facto been shelved. How will Government deal with bidders for this project, some of whom have incurred costs of up to €15m.? The reduction in stamp duty on commercial buildings from 9% to 6% will not revive demand. The €200 tax on second homes is expected to yield €40m., i.e. affect 200,000 houses in a full year. The changes in mortgage interest relief and in LA loans and equity sharing, will have little effect on housing. Overall, building volumes will continue to decline significantly. Further details in the November forecast Bulletin.